Tuesday, October 02, 2007


This is from the new Seymour Hirsch article on preparations for a war with Iran. Most of the article is about American preparations for war. But Hisrch also says this:

A senior European diplomat, who works closely with American intelligence, told me that there is evidence that Iran has been making extensive preparation for an American bombing attack. “We know that the Iranians are strengthening their air-defense capabilities,” he said, “and we believe they will react asymmetrically—hitting targets in Europe and in Latin America.” There is also specific intelligence suggesting that Iran will be aided in these attacks by Hezbollah. “Hezbollah is capable, and they can do it,” the diplomat said.


Per Hirsch, the US Army wants no part of another war. But the Navy and Air Force feel they haven't had their fair share of the action in Iraq. So the idea would be to bomb Iran with planes based on Navy carriers in the Persian Gulf. Also per Hirsch, Chaney thinks it will be a quick in and out: bomb key locations in Iran and then go home victorious.

Again per Hirsch, Israel is not entirely happy with this plan, because they aren't sure the US will be able to take out the right targets: the atomic sites (such as they are; the International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran is nowhere close to atomic weapons, if they are trying to make them) and presumably Iran's air force and its missiles.

If the Chaney plan does not work, the next step might be an extended war with the bombing of civilian targets, since modern warfare always seems to turn against cities and women and children. (Since the word "civilization" comes from the Latin for city, maybe we can say that every modern war is a war against civilization.)

If the Iranians are able respond in kind, they are likely to. Why should they sit quietly, while death rains down on their people?

We don't know if any of this will happen. But the Bush Administration is certainly making the same kind of noises they made before attacking Iraq. And Seymour Hirsch has a very good reputation.

Remember the famous line in The Princess Bride: "Never get in a land war in Asia." We are in two land wars in Asia already, and we are looking at creating a war zone that goes from Pakistan to Syria.

It's always possible I'm being too negative. My mood always goes down in the fall, when the days shorten; and it's been raining a lot here. Maybe my darkness is due to the external darkness. But just in case, why not write or call or email your congresspeople and say you don't want another war?

And maybe we need to get out the old signs and songbooks. "Peace now!" "I ain't gonna study war no more."


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